Trump’s 'Israel First' foreign policy gets bipartisan backing

Polygraph | Newsletter n°307 | 17 Jun 2025

IN THIS NEWSLETTER: Trump’s march to war, pro-war Democrats, and Iran’s imaginary nukes vs. Israel’s real ones.

*Thank you, Dave and Mark G. for becoming paid subscribers! You’re helping Polygraph survive and possibly thrive. Much appreciated.

*Great article by Nick Turse in The Intercept, feat. quotes from me: U.S. Intel Says Iran Isn’t a Nuclear Threat. Israel Wants the U.S. to Bomb It Anyway.

Situation

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s ultimate goal appears to be regime change in Iran, with the more immediate one being to entice the US further into the war. Trump has admitted that Netanyahu wants to drag the US into yet another Middle East conflict, but he’s now considering attacking Iran directly. American voters overwhelmingly don't want a war with Iran.

Trump is leading Americans into war under false pretenses. Israel’s justification for its attacks is that Iran is on the verge of producing nuclear weapons. US intelligence agencies believe Iran hasn’t even decided to build one, rejecting Israel’s claims that it has. Senior White House Officials aren't buying Israel’s assertion, either.

The fact that Israel’s justification for its war is false hasn’t stopped elected officials from repeating it. Adam Smith (D-WA), the ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee and therefore one of the most powerful Democrats on foreign policy, cited “Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon” as the reason he supports Israel “in their efforts to defend themselves.”

As a whole, Democrats are making sure no one mistakes them for an anti-war party. The top Democrat in the House, Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), not only offered full-throated support for Israel’s war, but also appeared to bless the direct involvement the Trump administration is now considering, stating, “It is clear that the Iranian regime poses a grave threat to the entire free world. There is no circumstance where Iran can be permitted to become a nuclear power.”

If Trump decides to bomb Iran, don’t expect any pushback from the highest-ranking Democrat in office. Earlier this month, Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was producing social media content designed to undermine diplomatic talks with Iranian officials, in keeping with his decade-long opposition to the historic Iran nuclear deal. Schumer has wanted to sink the Iran deal for as long as Netanyahu has.

A political party that has built its identity around opposing Trump is not opposing Trump’s march to war with Iran.

Status of nuclear forces, 2025

Israel has about 90 nuclear warheads in its inventory, according to the Federation of American Scientists. These warheads are real, unlike Iran’s imaginary ones. Now, which type of nukes — real or make-believe — do you think is getting more attention right now? A Google search for “Israeli nuclear weapons” over the past week produced 5,900 results. The same search for “Iranian nuclear weapons” yielded 54,400 results. Narrowing the search to news mentions over the past week, the results were 2,900 and 40,600, respectively.

The next logical Google search is for “Israeli exceptionalism.” Israel is the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons. It refuses to allow international inspectors to view its nuclear facilities and is one of just four UN member states that have refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It's this exceptionalism — and the resultant sense of impunity — that leads me to believe that of all the states that own nuclear weapons, Israel is the most likely to actually use them.

^Alt text for screen readers: Israel: 90 nuclear warheads. Rest of the Middle East: 0. This regional map displays states with nuclear weapons in red and those without in blue. Israel is the only country highlighted in red. Data: Federation of American Scientists, Status of World Nuclear Forces, 2025.

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