What will end up in the GOP’s $95 billion reconciliation bill?

Polygraph | Newsletter n°346 | 18 Jul 2026

IN THIS NEWSLETTER: Republicans have teed up a third reconciliation bill. Here’s what it will likely include.

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Situation

The House Budget Committee advanced a budget resolution this week that tees up a $95 billion reconciliation bill.

This is the third reconciliation bill of the second Trump administration. The first, enacted last July, was the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (since renamed, owing to its unpopularity) that paired tax cuts with military and paramilitary spending, financed by slashing social programs and adding to the deficit. The second reconciliation bill — the Secure America Act — was passed in June, providing still more paramilitary spending, including $39 billion for ICE, $26 billion for CBP, and a $5 billion discretionary account (slush fund) for the Homeland Security Secretary.

What a reconciliation bill is and what this one will likely include are discussed below.