A closer look at Trump’s 2026 budget request

Polygraph | Newsletter n°302 | 8 May 2025

IN THIS NEWSLETTER: A department-level breakdown of Trump’s FY2026 funding proposal.

For Part I on Trump’s budget, see here. For Part II, you’re in the right place.

How does Trump’s budget fund federal departments?

Glad you asked. The table below compares Trump’s requested funding for 2026 to enacted funding in 2025 for the 15 executive cabinet departments, sorted by the difference between those amounts. At one end, you’ll find the largest proposed increase (+$113 billion, Pentagon); at the other, the largest proposed cut (–$49 billion, State Department and International Programs).

In some ways, the budget request is even worse than it looks.¹ Departmental-level breakdowns understate how much military spending there actually is — and how much non-military spending there actually isn’t.

The table lists $962 billion for the Pentagon, but that figure refers strictly to its departmental budget, meaning that it excludes funding for military programs housed in other departments. Factor those amounts in and you get the $1.01 trillion military budget I mentioned in my last newsletter (and the same figure shown on page 43 of the White House proposal). In short, because the data is organized rigidly by departments’ budgets — and not by budget function — the table undersells the extent to which military programs dominate discretionary spending.²

This in turn overstates how much non-military spending there actually is. If you’re the Energy Department, you might be feeling pretty good about your $1 billion budget increase, especially as the 10 cabinet departments listed below you on the table face cuts. But alas, $30 billion of your $51 billion budget is earmarked for nuclear weapons and other military programs within the National Nuclear Security Administration. Outside of that, your budget falls by $5 billion — from $26 billion in 2025 to $21 billion for 2026. Sorry to be the one to break the news.

^Alt text for screen readers: Trump’s budget shifts funding from health, development to military, deportations. This table lists cabinet departments, 2025 enacted funding, 2026 requested funding, and highlights the difference in funding between 2025 and 2026. In billions of dollars: Pentagon +113, DHS +42, VA +5, Transportation +2, Energy +1, Commerce -2, Treasury -3, Justice -3, Labor -5, Agriculture -5, Interior -5, HHS -33, HUD -34, State/International programs -49. Data: OMB, 2026 base discretionary funding request.

What the spending increases actually buy

The stated purpose of the DHS increase is to “conduct mass detention and removal” of immigrants who ICE says are criminals. The extra Pentagon funding allegedly “revitalizes our military,” but based on what that money actually buys — like a fantasy missile shield, redundant and highly dangerous nuclear weapons, and no-strings-attached subsidies for the arms industry — it’s basically a 12-digit lump sum being flushed down the proverbial toilet (which I imagine has a $10,000 seat lid, like the ones the US military buys).

The fantasy missile shield I’m referring to is Trump's proposed “Golden Dome for America,” which is essentially a redux of Reagan’s SDI/Star Wars boondoggle. Rounded to the nearest whole number, I’d say there’s a 100% chance the Golden Dome ends up as one too. That’s the best-case scenario: In the very unlikely scenario the missile defense system does work and is capable of downing any foreign-launched missile, US rivals would immediately dump untold billions into developing new nuclear weapons that can defeat it. The Golden Dome will either result in corporate welfare, or corporate welfare and a nuclear arms race.

News outlets are reporting that the Golden Dome costs $25 billion, which is bad enough. But that number is bothering me for a different reason — it’s not the final cost. It’s merely the first of presumably many payments from the public to the Pentagon (and ultimately to SpaceX and other military contractors). This is confirmed in Trump’s budget request, which describes it as “a down-payment on the development and deployment of a Golden Dome for America.”

And the name is stupid.

What’s lost in the spending cuts

Joining the State Department in the budget’s basement are the Departments of Housing and Urban Development (–$34 billion) and Health and Human Services (–$33 billion). Based on the proposal, the State Department’s military aid programs — which provide $3.3 billion a year to Israel and several billion more to other countries — will be spared. Non-military aid won’t. That includes development assistance, humanitarian aid, and contributions to international organizations like the World Health Organization. Part of the HHS reduction is an $18 billion cut to the National Institutes of Health (which the White House proposal calls the National Institute [sic] of Health). For HUD, there’s a $27 billion cut to rental assistance and housing for older adults and people with disabilities.

To summarize: Trump’s proposal cuts health and development programs both domestically and internationally to fund more militarized policing at home and military escalation abroad. This sounds all too familiar.

SPECIAL THANKS TO: Abe B., Alan F., Amin, Andrew R., AT., BartB., BeepBoop, Ben, Ben C.,* Bill S., Bob N., Brett S., Byron D., Chris, Chris G., Cole H., D. Kepler, Daniel M., David J., David S.,* David V.,* David M., Elizabeth R., Errol S., Foundart, Francis M., Frank R., Gary W., Gladwyn S., Graham P., Griffin R., Hunter S., Irene B., Isaac, Isaac L., Jacob, James H., James N., Jcowens, Jeff, Jennifer, Jennifer J., Jessica S., Jerry S., Joe R., John, John, John A., John K., John M., Jonathan S., Joseph B., Joshua R., Julia G., Katrina H., Kheng L., Lea S., Leah A., Leila CL., Linda B., Linda H., Lindsay, Lindsay S.,* Lora L., Mapraputa, Marie R., Mark L., Mary Z., Marty, Matthew H.,* Megan., Melanie B., Michael S., Mitchell P., Nick B., Noah K., Norbert H., Omar A., Omar D.,* Peter M., Phil, Philip L., Rosemary K., Sari G., Scarlet, Scott H., Silversurfer, Soh, Springseep, Stan C., TBE, Teddie G., Theresa A., Themadking, Tim C., Timbuk T., Tony L., Tony T., Victor S., Wayne H., William P.

* = founding member

-Stephen (Follow me on Instagram, Twitter, and Bluesky)

1. By “even worse” I mean even less aligned with working class interests.

2. Discretionary spending is proposed by the president, enacted by Congress, and funds federal agencies’ operations. Mandatory spending is primarily payments for benefits programs like Social Security and Medicare that are funded automatically. For an overview, see this CBO graphic.