This bill refunds you $600 for Biden’s military buildup

Polygraph | Newsletter n°243 | 8 April 2024

*Read my latest article in Jacobin on the parts of the recent spending bill that Democrats are trying to gloss over: “On Gaza, Democrats Are Talking One Way But Walking Another”

*I finally gave in and enabled payments. Help keep this newsletter going/growing by becoming a paid subscriber. Sorry/thanks.

Situation

During the 2020 presidential race, Biden said that Trump “abandoned all fiscal discipline when it comes to defense spending.” He was correct: Right before he left office, Trump approved a $740 billion Pentagon budget for FY2021. But Biden just enacted one worth $886 billion for FY2024 by signing off on the $1.2 trillion spending legislation.

I wrote a bill that would refund taxpayers for Biden’s military buildup in a policy paper for Security in Context (follow them on Twitter, Youtube, etc) called Returning public funds to the public: A plan to convert excess US military spending into $600 tax rebates.

If enacted, this year’s military spending would return to FY2021 levels, thereby freeing up $146 billion — enough to cover another round of $600 tax rebates (the ones issued in January 2021 cost $141 billion). The bill’s called the Tax Rebates for Workers Act.¹

Longtime readers of this newsletter know that I’ve written about this idea before here and there. What the fine folks at SiC allowed me to do is put all my thoughts together in a formal, peer-reviewed policy paper: I was able to fully draft the legislative text and develop the justifications for why the bill makes for good policy.

Why this bill is good policy

1. It forces the US to divest (at least partially) from bad policy 

The ever-increasing Pentagon budget animates a militarized, ill-fated foreign policy strategy that provokes rather than prevents conflict with China. The surge in Pentagon spending during the Biden administration has sponsored an intensification of military activity in the Indo-Pacific. Even more weapons and troops are being dumped into the region, purportedly in the name of (preventing conflict through) deterrence. Provocation is a better word for it. Regardless of whether the US’s intentions are purely defensive, they’re not seen that way in Beijing, and a dangerous feedback loop has emerged as a result: Each country pursues actions perceived as threatening by the other, and each responds with countermeasures perceived as threatening in the same way. (page 2)

2. Tax rebates would help blunt rising financial hardship 

Human security conditions are deteriorating inside the country that spends more on its military than the next ten combined. In 2022, the number of Americans in poverty grew by 60 percent — from 26 million to 41 million people — the largest documented year-to-year increase and the first significant hike since 2010. The child poverty rate more than doubled from 5.2 percent in 2021 to 12.4 percent in 2022 — also a record annual increase — and real median household income fell by 9 percent, from $70,460 to $64,240. These developments are attributed primarily to a sharp reduction in federal benefits from 2021 to 2022, especially social programs tailored to moderate- to low-income workers and families. In other words, people began getting a lot less in return for their federal income taxes. Many effectively started paying more income taxes as well: There were three rounds of tax rebates issued in 2020 and 2021, but zero have been issued since then. These rebates are credited with lifting 11.7 million people out of poverty in 2020 and 8.9 million in 2021. (page 7)

3. It’s only fair

If I succeed in getting this bill introduced in Congress, I suspect some lawmakers will take umbrage with the fact that a sizable chunk of their constituency is suddenly invested in the fight to reduce Pentagon spending. There’s no denying this bill creates a far-reaching financial incentive for the public to pressure their representatives — the first round of $600 tax rebates reached 147 million households, and most people would really like another one.

But lawmakers have got no right to complain about financial incentives. Before voting on this year’s Pentagon budget, each House member had received on average $20,000 in arms industry campaign cash this election cycle. Having studied the relationship between campaign contributions and congressional votes over the last three years, I can confidently state the obvious: these political donations work as intended. It’s not always evident on an individual basis, but in the aggregate, they clearly tilt the field toward a bigger Pentagon budget — in stark contrast with public opinion.

*Want to help me lobby for this bill and also support this newsletter? Subscribe today:

^Alt text for screen readers: Cut the Pentagon budget and send people $600 with the savings. The Tax Rebates for Workers Act refunds taxpayers for Pentagon excess. This chart has two columns showing current and amended fiscal year 2024 appropriations. The left column shows $886 billion, representing the Pentagon budget. The right column is the same height but has two sections: a $740 billion Pentagon budget and $146 billion in funding for another round of $600 tax rebates. Read more: Semler, Stephen, 2024. "Returning public funds to the public: A plan to convert excess US military spending into $600 tax rebates," Jan 2024, Security in Context.

SPECIAL THANKS TO: Alan F., Andrew R., Anthony T., Bart B., BeepBoop, David S., Francis M., George C., Jerry S., Linda B., Lora L., Marie R., Mark G., Megan., Omar D., Peter M., Philip L., Springseep, Tony L.

Join them here:

-Stephen (@stephensemler; stephen@securityreform.org). Follow me on Bluesky.

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1. I didn’t have much creative energy left over for the title.