US has spent at least $38 billion on Israel since October 2023

Polygraph | Newsletter n°317 | 10 Oct 2025

IN THIS NEWSLETTER: The financial costs of a US taxpayer-funded genocide and regional war.

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Summary

Over the last two years, the US government has spent at least $38 billion sending weapons to Israel, protecting it against counterattacks, and fighting a Middle East regional war on its behalf. On average, that’s $52 million per day and over $2 million per hour.

Paid subscribers already saw an itemized list of this $38 billion in a 100-row interactive table. (Depending on what you’re into, this will either be a major incentive or deterrent for becoming a paid subscriber.) Nearly every amount listed can be traced back to a particular bill passed by Congress or financial document from the Pentagon.¹

In this newsletter, I group these 100 individual military expenditures into three broad categories: arming Israel, defending Israel, and waging war on Israel’s behalf. The costs of each are discussed in the next three sections, then illustrated in a chart.

NB: $38 billion is a conservative estimate for US military spending on Israel from October 2023 through September 2025. The reason it’s an estimate at all is because it has to be — despite how often US political leaders declare their ironclad support for Israel, they enforce a unique level of opacity when it comes to arming Israel. This alone should be a major red flag.

I. Arming Israel

Cost: $18 billion (possibly up to about $22 billion²)

This category includes traditionally defined bilateral military aid programs funded by the State Department and Pentagon. In 2025, Israel received $3.9 billion in military aid,³ including:

• $3.3 billion – State Department, grants for arms purchases

• $500 million – Pentagon, missile systems

• $55 million – Pentagon, counter-drone

• $47.5 million – Pentagon, anti-tunneling

• $20 million – Pentagon, “emerging technologies”

Had US political leaders followed US human rights law, military aid to Israel since October 2023 would be $0, not $18 billion.

II. Waging war on Israel’s behalf

Cost: $14.1 billion

Congress approved three war slush funds to pay for US military operations in the Middle East:

• $4.4 billion from Biden’s foreign aid bill

• $2.44 billion from another part of Biden’s foreign aid bill, for “operations, force protection, deterrence, and the replacement of combat expenditures”

• $8 billion from the 2025 government funding bill, for “military operations, force protection, and deterrence”

The nearly $15 billion above are incremental costs, meaning expenses that exceed what the US military would’ve otherwise spent in the region if not for post-October 2023 Israeli policy.⁴ A portion of this sum funded the US war against the Houthis in Yemen, which originally stemmed from Israel’s genocide in Gaza. The Houthis started attacking ships in the Red Sea in protest of the genocide and have repeatedly said — and demonstrated — that their attacks stop when Israel stops attacking Gaza. Instead of doing the smart thing and halting Israel’s assault, the US bombed Yemen so Israel could continue bombing Gaza. For arms companies and their sponsored politicians, the dumb policy choice is usually the more profitable one.

If you cross-reference Pentagon financial records with media reports, you’ll find instances of the US military incurring expenses well beyond what Congress provided to fight a regional war on Israel’s behalf. For example, the cost of fighting the Houthis really got away from the US, financially speaking. For instance, nowhere in the relevant legislation or financial documents is there funding for replacing the F/A-18 fighter aircraft shot down by friendly fire in December, the F/A-18 that tumbled off an aircraft carrier in April, or the F/A-18 that somehow did the same thing in May.

The $252 million in aircraft that ended up in the Red Sea is an unfunded cost. All told, I counted $924 million worth of unfunded costs in this category:

• 31 Patriot interceptors expended (1 in April 2024, 30 in June 2025).⁵ Unit cost: $4.8 million

• 21 MQ-9 drones shot down (since October 2023). Unit cost: $23 million

• 3 F/A-18 fighter aircraft in the Red Sea (1 in December 2024, 1 in April 2025, 1 in May 2025). Unit cost: $84 million

III. Directly defending Israel

Cost: $6.2 billion

In its financial documents, the Pentagon makes it a point to distinguish between operational expenses related to Israel (discussed in the prior section) and the operational costs of directly defending Israel (discussed in this section). These documents show that $1.8 billion was “expended in support of Israel through U.S. combat operations executed at the request of and in coordination with Israel and for the defense of Israeli territory, personnel, or assets.” The remaining expenses in this category weren’t budgeted for.

During the 12-day war between Israel and Iran (June 13–24, 2025), the US fired 150 THAAD and more than 80 SM-3 interceptors at Iranian missiles. While the Pentagon put a hefty $703 million toward replacing expended THAAD interceptors and $713 million toward replacing expended SM-3s (both included in the $1.8 billion figure above), that’s only enough to replace 34 THAADs and 31 SM-3s — a shortfall of 116 and 59 interceptors, respectively.⁶ Here’s what these unfunded costs amount to:

• THAAD shortfall (116) ✕ THAAD unit cost ($20,582,917) = $2,384,804,500

• SM-3 shortfall (59) ✕ SM-3 unit cost ($33,864,167) = $1,996,633,333

The unfunded costs I wasn’t able to identify are a major reason why the $38 billion total is a conservative estimate.

*

Had US political leaders followed US human rights law, acted in their country’s interests, or shown some semblance of morality, US military spending on Israel since October 2023 would not be $38 billion.

A fully itemized list of this $38 billion is available here.

^Alt text for screen readers: The US has spent at least $38 billion on Israel since October 2023. The single column chart shows $38.2 billion in US military spending on Israel from October 2023 through September 2025, including: $18 billion arming Israel, $6.1 billion defending Israel, $14.1 billion waging war on Israel’s behalf. Data: Pentagon financial records, enacted legislation, media reports, author analysis. Figures are conservative estimates in constant 2025 US dollars.

Sources: P.L.119-4 and 2025 DD1414; P.L.119-4; P.L.118-50, Div. A, Title III; P.L.118-50, Div. A, Title I; P.L.118-47, Sec. 8072; P.L.118-47, Sec. 7041; P.L.118-47 and 2024 DD1414; Pentagon Comptroller (Exhibit P-1, various fiscal years); FY 25-45 IR; FY 25-44 IR; FY 25-37 IR; FY 25-33 IR; FY 25-32 IR; FY 25-16 IR; FY 25-15 IR; FY 25-09 IR; FY 25-08 IR; FY 24-57 IR; FY 24-56 IR; FY 24-37 IR; FA-DART (foreignassistance.gov); and various media reports (CNN, Task & Purpose, Wall Street Journal).

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-Stephen (Follow me on Instagram, Twitter, and Bluesky)

1. There are 6 exceptions out of 100. A handful that aren’t in those records are unfunded costs — expenses incurred by the US military that exceed the amount Congress approved for Israel-related operations, including the replacement cost of the F/A-18 fighter aircraft that ended up in the Red Sea while fighting the Houthis (discussed below). Additionally, I had to estimate the 2025 amount for Excess Defense Articles, which I made equal to the 2001–24 average. The reason I had to estimate it is that it’s a program that doesn’t require funding from Congress, and the Pentagon is slow to release the data.

I also estimated $1 billion worth of classified stockpile transfers, but that funding is already accounted for in US law and does not add to the overall total. This is the value of two provisions in Biden’s foreign aid bill (totaling $1 billion) that are not explicitly for that purpose but appear related, and are thus used as a stand-in amount for my estimate. For that reason, it doesn’t add to the overall total. One provision is $801.4 million for “Procurement of Ammunition, Army,” and the other is $198.6 million for “Defense Production Act Purchases.” Neither is explicitly for military aid. However, War Department documents show that the latter is for “missiles and munitions,” and the Chair of the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee provided the details on both. He said the former was “for production of 155-millimeter rounds” (artillery) and the latter was “for the production and development of small-diameter bombs and precision-guided rockets.” Israel has used vast quantities of all these munitions since October 2023.

2. The ~$22 billion upper estimate — not included in the $38 billion total — exists because Congress set aside $4.4 billion for direct stockpile transfers from the US to Israel in 2024, but the Pentagon ended up using those funds instead for Israel-related operations. The upper estimate accounts for the possibility that ~$4.4 billion in stockpile transfers took place but were funded by an unrelated part of the federal budget. Additional context: In Biden’s foreign aid bill (enacted April 2024), there’s a $4.4 billion provision that Congress indicated was for transferring arms directly from US stockpiles to Israel:

Republicans’ fact sheet on the foreign aid bill: “$4.4 billion to replenish defense articles and defense services provided to Israel.”

Democrats’ fact sheet on the foreign aid bill: “$4.4 billion to replenish U.S. stocks of equipment sent to Israel through Presidential drawdown authority.”

There was good reason to believe Congress. At that point, Biden had used his drawdown authority to transfer billions of dollars in arms directly from Pentagon stocks to Ukraine. In addition to apparently providing the funding to do the same for Israel, Biden’s foreign aid bill also increased the annual limit on drawdowns from $100 million to $7.8 billion under the Israel division of the bill. Furthermore, there’s a US arms stockpile in Israel that Israel can and has draw from. Biden’s foreign aid bill eliminated virtually all restrictions and oversight on the quantity and type of arms the US could store in Israel in 2024. Additionally, Biden’s original request for that bill specifically mentioned the legal statute for drawdowns — section 506(a)(1) of the Foreign Assistance Act (22 U.S.C. 2318(a) — in the $4.4 billion part of the request, and the $4.4 billion enacted amount was literally labeled as “Israel Presidential Drawdown” in a Pentagon budget execution report after the bill was signed into law.

However, ten Pentagon documents released between June 2024 and August 2025 show that the $4.4 billion funded US military operations, not US military aid. There still may have been $4.4 billion in stockpile transfers since October 2023 (I’d have a better idea if the Inspector General audit of the US stockpile in Israel weren’t so heavily redacted), but if there were, those transfers weren’t funded by that $4.4 billion provision in Biden’s foreign aid bill.

3. Smaller programs collectively add less than $26 million to this total. This includes a combined $157,166 through two State Department security assistance programs — International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement (INCLE) and Nonproliferation, Anti-Terrorism, Demining and Related Programs (NADR) — plus an estimated $25 million through Excess Defense Articles (EDA), which is a Pentagon program that does what its name implies. EDA doesn’t require funding from Congress and the Pentagon is slow to release the data, hence the estimate. The estimated 2025 amount is equal to the actual annual average for fiscal years 2001-24. Data for INCLE, NADR, and EDA all come from foreignassistance.gov, which is managed by the Foreign Assistance Data and Reporting Team (FA-DART).

4. The Pentagon makes it a point in its financial documents to specify the operational expenses that are related to Israel. I don’t know why the Pentagon bothers specifying this, but it does.

5. I should have put the one expended Patriot MSE interceptor from April 2024 in the “directly defending Israel” category. So there should be $4.8 million more in that category and $4.8 million less in this one. I regret the error.

6. The 2025 unit cost of the THAAD is $20.6 million and $33.9 million for the SM-3, per my analysis of 2025 weapons procurement data.